UK Back Log Of 4.3 Million Missing Homes

A report by the Centre for Cities indicates the UK has a backlog of 4.3 to 6.5 million missing homes compared to the average Western European country. This significant deficit represents a 15% increase in required housing stock, with roots in planning restrictions dating back to 1947. This shortage is considered the main driver of the UK’s housing crisis.

Reports indicate that the UK has a significant housing backlog compared to comparable European countries. This backlog is considered a “missing” supply built up over decades due to lower construction rates than European neighboors, particularly since the 1950s.

The UK often fails to meet its house building targets. Estimates suggest a substantial increase in annual new home construction is needed for England to reach the housing density of its OECD peers.

The UK population however, grew by 755,300 (1.1%) in the year to mid-2024, one of the largest annual increases in over 75 years (Office for National Statistics)

1.3 Million Households Are On Social Housing Waiting Lists

England faces a severe, long-term housing shortage driven by a failure to meet building targets and rapid population growth, this crisis has made homeownership, particularly for young people, increasingly unattainable, with property prices rising 318% since the 1970s while wages only grew by 94%. Over 1.3 million households are on social housing waiting lists across England. Due to a chronic shortage of affordable housing, families face an average wait of five and a half years. Simultaneously, over 354,000 people are believed to be homeless, including those in temporary accommodation.

England’s Severe Housing Shortages

England is frequently cited as having one of the most severe housing shortages among developed nations. Housing costs, constitute a larger portion of household spending in the UK than in most other OECD countries. Recent data shows a decrease in total housing completions, and a significant drop in new home registrations in London.

Old UK Housing Stock

The UK’s housing stock is among the oldest in the developed world, with a large percentage of homes built before 1980. With a significant portion of homes built over a century ago. Approximately 38% of UK homes were built before 1946, a higher proportion than any other European country.

Roughly 15-20% of homes in England and Wales were built before 1919, leading to significant energy efficiency challenges, with many properties falling below EPC band C. Older, solid-wall homes, particularly in London and Wales, often require extensive maintenance compared to newer, more efficient builds.

A significant number of homes in England also do not meet the “Decent Homes Standard”. The UK often fails to meet its house building targets. Estimates suggest a substantial increase in annual new home construction is needed for England to reach the housing density of its OECD peers.

England Worst Place In The Developed World To Find Housing

England is reported as the worst place in the developed world to find housing. The UK has historically built fewer homes per 1,000 inhabitants than countries like France, Germany, or the Netherlands, leading to a significant accumulated housing deficit. OECD nations data often places the UK among the bottom in the OECD for housing stock growth.

Had the UK built houses at the same rate as the average Western European country between 1955 and 2015, it would have 4.3 million more homes. If the UK continues at current building rates, it will take over 50 years to address the backlog. The United Kingdom’s population was estimated to be 69.3 million in mid-2024, reflecting a significant increase driven largely by international migration. The population is projected to reach 72.5 million by mid-2032 and 76.6 million by 2047, alongside an aging demographic.

England has a significantly lower number of dwellings per 1,000 inhabitants (around 434) compared to the OECD average of approximately 487. This is also lower than comparable nations like France, Italy, and the Netherlands.

Key Aspects Of The Missing Homes Crisis

Comparison Basis: Had the UK built houses at the same rate as the average Western European country between 1955 and 2015, it would have 4.3 million more homes.
Cause: Inefficient post-war planning systems, particularly the 1947 Town and Country Planning Act, have hindered development.
Scale: The 4.3 million figure is considered conservative, with some estimates even higher, placing the shortage above the total number of dwellings in London.
Previous Estimates: This 4.3 million figure aligns with, or exceeds, other assessments of the housing crisis, such as the 3.9 million missing homes calculated by Crisis in 2015.
Impact: The lack of homes drives up housing costs and contributes to economic disparities.
Geography: The shortages are most acute in the South East, where high-demand, prosperous cities often build less, according to Centre for Cities.
Underbuilding History: The crisis is not solely recent; roughly 1.2 million, or 29% of the missing homes, were lost to low construction rates between 1955 and 1979. The government has previously set targets to build 300,000 homes a year, but these are insufficient to rapidly close the gap, notes Centre for Cities.
Proposed Solutions: Proposed solutions include extensive planning reforms, such as introducing a zone-based system to increase housing supply. The Centre for Cities recommends replacing the discretionary planning system with a rules-based, flexible zoning system to address the deficit. The report notes that addressing this backlog is essential, as the UK has one of the most difficult housing markets in the developed world to navigate.

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